SERBIAN RADICALS, PM'S PARTY, SOCIALISTS HAVE MAJORITY TO FORM GOVERNMENT - POLL
BBC Monitoring International Reports - April 29, 2008, Tuesday

Text of report by Serbian pro-Western daily Danas, on 24 April.

[Report by "E.D.": "Coalition Between Nikolic and Kostunica Is Closest to Making New Government"]

Belgrade -- Results of the most recent public opinion survey conducted by the CeSID [Centre for Free Elections and Democracy] show that after the parliamentary election on 11 May, Tomislav Nikolic, Vojislav Kostunica, and Ivica Dacic will have a comfortable enough majority to be able to create Serbia's new government. The second, currently less probable possibility, is a coalition around the Democratic Party, with the DSS [Democratic Party of Serbia] and the SPS [Socialist Party of Serbia], while the third option is an extremely broad coalition around the DS, which would presume the support of the LDP [Liberal Democratic Party], the SPS, and the minorities.

Also, the survey results show that the Radicals have retained a slight edge over the DS alliance (around 150,000), and that Cedomir Jovanovic's LDP has been seeing a constant increase in popular support, while a stable third place for the DSS-NS coalition is no longer a surprise.

The results of a field survey that the CeSID conducted in the middle of this month on a sample of 3,000 respondents on the entire territory of Serbia without Kosovo, which have been submitted to Danas by one of the parliamentary parties, show that the Serbian Radical Party, with 36% of the votes, is still the strongest political power in Serbia. Just behind it is the "List for a Pro-European Serbia -- Boris Tadic," with 35%, and the DSS-NS coalition with 12% of the overall popular votes. Other parties above the assembly threshold are the Liberal Democratic Party (8%), and the Socialist Party of Serbia (7%), while the parties of the ethnic minorities would get 3%.

Transformed into deputy seats in the Serbian Assembly, the above results mean that the SRS would have 88 seats, the DS list would have 85, and the DSS-NS coalition would have 30, the LDP would have 20, and the SPS 17, while the deputies representing the political parties of the ethnic minorities would have 10 seats. This CeSID survey shows that a SRS-DSS-NS-SPS coalition would have a total of 135 deputy seats in the Serbian Assembly. To have a majority, a party or coalition needs to have 126 deputies out of the total number of 250. On the other hand, if the DS wanted to form a new Serbian Government counting on the current balance of forces, it would have to make a pact either with Kostunica and Velimir Ilic, with the support of the SPS (132 deputy seats), or to form an extremely broad coalition that would include the G17 Plus, the SDP [Sandzak Democratic Party] headed by Rasim Ljajic, the SPO [Serbian Renewal Movement], the SPS, the LDP, and parties of the ethnic majorities (also 132 deputy seats).

A possibility that should not be overlooked is that the parties may not reach any agreement on forming a majority in the Serbian Assembly within the three-month deadline, in which case Serbia would be faced with a new parliamentary election in the fall or early winter.

Source: Danas, Belgrade, in Serbian 24 Apr 08
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