Serbian poll shows support for EU, NATO membership in decline
BBC Monitoring Europe (Political) - April 22, 2008 Tuesday

Text of report by Serbian privately-owned tabloid Glas javnosti, on 21 April

[Report by D. Milosevic: "Support for EU Dwindling"]

Belgrade - A survey by the Politikum agency concerning the Serbian public's attitudes towards the most important political and/or election campaign issues shows that over the last six months the popularity of the populist bloc has grown so much that the SRS [Serbian Radical Party], the DSS [Democratic Party of Serbia], and the NS [New Serbia] could form a government on their own, as a result of changes in positions on strategic partnerships, cooperation with The Hague, and Kosovo-Metohija [K-M, Kosmet].

In the period from October 2007 to April 2008, a full 7.5 per cent of respondents have abandoned support for Serbia's accession to the European Union, and 1 per cent of that group has moved all the way over to the side of those openly opposed to European integration.

The results pertaining to Atlantic integration are more interesting, since they show that the number of those who continue to back membership in NATO has declined by 8 per cent, but only 1 per cent of those are now undecided, whereas 7 per cent have completely changed their minds and joined the camp of those openly opposed to joining the alliance. The results pertaining to citizens' attitudes on closer ties with Russia show that the popularity of the pro-European bloc is not diminishing because of the intensive support that Moscow is offering the authorities concerning Kosmet, but rather because of the actions of Belgrade and Washington. In other words, this is not a case of votes "shifting" from one economic and military centre to another, as evidenced by the decline in support for rapprochement with the Russians. Over the last six months, the number of citizens who believe that Serbia's "closest ties should be with Russia" has fallen by half a percentage point, but those who oppose such a policy have also declined by 1 per cent. Rapprochement with Russia is supported by 58.81 per cent, whereas the figure for the EU is 63.89 per cent.

Thus, the seemingly fundamental split in Serbia over the question of "east or west, Europe or Russia" is a dispute that fewer than 5 per cent of its citizens would pursue, which is to say fewer than the threshold for entry into the Assembly. A much more serious question is "whether you support the extradition of citizens of the Republic of Serbia to the Hague Tribunal." One in four citizens say that are either completely or mostly in favour of extraditing Hague indictees and only one in 10 are undecided, whereas a full 47.84 per cent are "absolutely opposed" and 14.87 per cent are "mostly opposed." Thus, it is possible to say that more than 40 per cent of Serbia would shut down The Hague.

Kosovo-Metohija, Serbia's "cancer lesion," is no less painful than it was six months ago and is nearly equivalent to the issue of The Hague. Specifically, almost the same percentage that rejects The Hague also rejects the insulting unofficial messages coming from the West, which are more like carrots than offers, that Serbia would enter the EU more easily if it were rid of the Kosovo burden. When asked "whether the independence of Kosmet should be recognized if that were a condition for faster accession to the EU," 18.23 per cent of respondents said yes; in December and February that figure had fallen by 3 to 4 per cent, but now it has returned to the old level. Since those with no response have remained at about 10 per cent the whole time, open opposition to that trade-off grew by the same amount during the months that support for it declined. At present, 16.16 of voters per cent support state policy towards Kosmet "completely," 34.95 per cent support it "mostly," and 33.95 per cent are opposed. A full 14.94 per cent "don't know" or are undecided on that issue, but only half of that percentage do not know what would be "the most just solution for the status of Kosmet." The changes in attitudes are slight: Independence was favoured by 6.05 per cent in October, and following a decline of half a percentage point in February that figure now stands at 6.77 per cent. Autonomy is favoured by 54.89 per cent, which is 2 per cent less than six months ago. Partition has been consistently endorsed by around 28 per cent, and only 4 per cent of respondents are in favour of a protectorate.

[Box] For Our Military in Kosovo

A policy of strengthening the Serbian state's presence in Kosmet in the sense of strengthening parallel institutions in Serb locales is supported fully by 48.69 per cent and mostly by 21.79 per cent, whereas 12.52 per cent are opposed and 17 per cent of respondents had no answer. A strengthening of Serbia's military and police presence in Serb locales in Kosmet is supported by 64.18 per cent and opposed by 22.19 per cent, with 13.64 per cent of voters having no opinion. There is an almost identical number of those who do not know whether and under what conditions the arrival of EULEX [European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo] should be accepted. Only 9.39 per cent favour unconditional acceptance of the mission, and another 34.64 per cent of Serbia's citizens would welcome it if it had UN Security Council approval. Opposition under any circumstances was expressed by 42.73 per cent of respondents.

[Survey results]

Should Serbia's closest ties be with Russia?

Yes No No opinion

October 2007 59.31 per cent 25.38 per cent 15.31 per cent

December 2007 57.35 per cent 26.27 per cent 16.39 per cent

February 2008 60.30 per cent 24.42 per cent 15.28 per cent

April 2008 58.81 per cent 24.39 per cent 16.79 per cent

Do you favour Serbia joining NATO?

Yes No No opinion

October 2007 26.20 per cent 60.71 per cent 13.10 per cent

December 2007 22.56 per cent 67.44 per cent 9.99 per cent

February 2008 19.04 per cent 67.90 per cent 13.06 per cent

April 2008 18.10 per cent 67.11 per cent 14.79 per cent

If recognizing the independence of K-M were a condition for faster accession to the EU, do you think that that condition should be accepted?

Yes No No opinion

October 2007 18.11 per cent 70.21 per cent 11.68 per cent

December 2007 14.82 per cent 75.17 per cent 10.01 per cent

February 2008 15.76 per cent 73.92 per cent 10.33 per cent

April 2008 18.23 per cent 71.31 per cent 10.46 per cent

Do you favour joining the EU?

Yes No No opinion

October 2007 71.55 per cent 21.26 per cent 7.20 per cent

December 2007 66.96 per cent 25.79 per cent 7.25 per cent

February 2008 67.23 per cent 22.81 per cent 9.97 per cent

April 2008 63.89 per cent 22.44 per cent 13.67 per cent

Source: Glas javnosti, Belgrade, in Serbian 21 Apr 08, p3
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