Europe's approaching train wreck; Kosovo I
The International Herald Tribune - March 23, 2007 Friday
Stanley Kober - International Herald Tribune
WASHINGTON - Europe, and the United Nations, are facing what could turn out to
be a defining moment.
In 1999, following the conclusion of NATO's war against the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1244, which established
the political conditions for ultimately resolving the status of the province of
Kosovo.
Even though the war had been fought to protect the people of Kosovo, 1244
decreed that Kosovo would not be granted independence. ''The sovereignty and
territorial integrity'' of Yugoslavia (now Serbia) were to be protected, while
Kosovo was to be granted ''substantial autonomy and meaningful
self-administration.''
Now, it appears, these assurances will be repudiated. The proposal prepared by
the UN special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari, permits Kosovo to conclude international
agreements and become a member of international organizations attributes of
sovereignty, not autonomy.
The Serbian government has reacted negatively, and Russia has hinted it will
reject any solution that is not acceptable to Serbia.
The momentum toward independence for Kosovo seems irresistible because it is
unlikely that the predominantly Albanian population there will accept anything
less.
Accordingly, efforts are being made to find ways to change minds among the
Serbian population in Kosovo and in Serbia. The Serbs in Kosovo are being
provided assurances of protection, while Serbia is being shown the carrot (and
stick) of inclusion (or exclusion) in a broader Europe.
These inducements, however, do not seem to be having much effect. The Serbs in
Kosovo would ''resist as any occupied people would do,'' the head of the Serbian
Orthodox church, Bishop Artemje, told an audience in Washington on Feb. 8. And
in Serbia itself, the Ahtisaari plan is so sensitive that it has been stalling
efforts to form a new government.
In addition, the carrot of entry into the European Union is appearing
increasingly chimerical, given current European attitudes toward further
expansion.
Then there is the problem of international law. NATO's war against Yugoslavia
was not endorsed by the United Nations; at the time, the Clinton Administration
and its supporters, including UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, argued that
military action was legitimate, even if not strictly legal, because of the need
to prevent a humanitarian disaster.
But the rule of law works by precedent, so what applies to one must apply to
others. If NATO, as an international security organization, can act this way,
why cannot other such organizations act similarly in the future?
That is why adherence to Resolution 1244 is so important. If 1244 is ignored, it
is unreasonable to expect that our actions would not be treated as a precedent
to ignore other UN resolutions in the future. Russian Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have both made this point.
Russia, and many other nations, have been irritated by the tendency of NATO
countries, and the United States in particular, to bypass the Security Council
when they cannot obtain a resolution they want.
The dilemma confronting policymakers is acute. Kosovar aspirations cannot be
denied much longer, but the effort to satisfy them absent an agreement with
Serbia is bound to alienate the Serbs and, by extension, the Russians.
And if we craft solutions that bypass existing law, we should recognize that we
are creating opportunities for mischief down the road.
Indeed, if we attempt to buy peace at the expense of law, we might find out we
end up with neither.
With Ahtisaari's declaration that further negotiation is pointless, Europe's
trains Kosovo independence vs. Serbia's territorial integrity, legitimacy vs.
law are hurtling toward each other.
If the Russians (and possibly the Chinese) oppose revision of Resolution 1244 to
grant Kosovo effective independence, and if the United States and its allies
ignore these concerns and endorse the Ahtisaari plan, the reverberations will be
felt well beyond the Balkans.
*
Stanley Kober is a research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato
Institute, a nonprofit public policy research foundation in Washington.
Copyright 2007 International Herald Tribune
Posted for Fair Use only.