Kosovo: Russia considering "last resort" military option
Il Velino - July 31, 2007 (16:05)

By: John Phillips

ROME, 31 July - Russia may unleash a deployment of troops in northern Kosovo as a dramatic last resort to retaliate against the Contact Group backing independence for the ethnic-Albanian majority in the troubled Serbian province, some Belgrade-based diplomats and analysts say.

“However unlikely the scenario sounds, Russian troops could conceivably land in Serbia, which has several military airports conveniently close to the Kosovo border, and move into the north of the province from there, demanding their chunk of responsibility in any international peacekeeping force in the province,” the respected online publication Balkan Insight said this week. “Ukraine, Hungary, Moldova or Bulgaria would probably not attempt to use weapons to prevent Russian troop transports from flying over their countries en route for Serbia,” says Aleksander Vasovic, the Serbia editor of Balkan Insight.

“It is unlikely that NATO troops would open fire on Russian columns advancing into predominantly Serbian northern kosovo, where they would be greeted by the local population as liberators,” Mr Vasovic, a seasoned Balkans observer, adds. He acknowledges, however, that such a move would “severely undermine and set back all Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union or NATO” and that “Western investors would also probably abandon Serbia, leaving the country prey to Russian tycoons.”

But Belgrade watchers say that Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica evidently has few options but to stick close to the Kremlin. Both the Serbs and the Russians are hailing their success in stalling the efforts by the Kosovo Albanians to become independent before the year’s end. Before contemplating the military option, Moscow can influence the EU with its natural gas shipments to Europe just as it cut supplies for short periods before to express its displeasure with Ukraine and Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin may feel that if he gives up on Kosovo, his effort to reestablish Russia as a great power would be jeopardised, says Mr Vasovic.

Meanwhile Mr Kostunica has ruled out the possibility of Serbia forging a confederation with Kosovo, an idea reportedly floated by the EU. The Serbian leader, a moderate nationalist, told the independent Beta news agency that the idea, reported by the Belgrade daily Vecernje Novosti, was “nonsensical.”

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