The wrong blueprint for Baghdad; The Balkans
are hailed as proof that western intervention improves native lives. Wrong,
reports Mark Almond
The New Statesman - March 24, 2003
BY: Mark Almond - The world's attention has shifted from the Balkans to Baghdad,
but anyone tempted to trust President Bush's optimistic scenario for a future
'prosperous and free' Iraq with 'no more killings' should consider the real fate
of Serbs, Albanians and everyone else in the former
Yugoslavia since
Nato forces intervened there.
The assassination of the Serbian prime minister Zoran Djindjic outside his
office in Belgrade on 12 March was the most dramatic symptom of the continuing
decay and disorder besetting the region. What was most striking about the
Serbian public's reaction to a mafia hit squad taking out their prime minister
was the way they shrugged it off as just another in a long list of murders on
the streets of Belgrade.
Although western leaders like to boast that it was
Nato's precision bombing and awesome
firepower which shattered Slobodan Milosevic's regime, the dirty secret of so
much of the new world order's success has been the cynical use of the underworld
of corrupt post-communist states. Djindjic had been the west's favoured son in
Serbia, heavily promoted by our secret services who turned a blind eye to the
unsavoury underworld company he kept because he had been able to mobilise
Belgrade's mob to topple Milosevic.
A similar scenario is already under way in Iraq, where a motley crew of former
common criminals and Saddam Hussein's torturers who fell out of favour with him
are being groomed to succeed in Baghdad. No doubt, a suave English-speaking face
will smile for the cameras when George Bush and Tony Blair come to visit
liberated Iraq amid the adulation of the grateful newly free, but what happens
after the cheering stops?
That's when the real tragedy of the new world order begins. Any enthusiasm for
change, even from an existing grim situation, may well be short-lived if the
Balkans experience is anything to go by.
Bombs destroy and terrify, but the kind of postwar 'reforms' mandated by the
west breed a much more insidious despair and depression. The most dramatic
examples of economic and social collapse are in the former Yugoslavia. Blair
quotes Kosovo as a success story, justifying his confidence in humanitarian
adventures but, on the ground, Kosovo almost four years on looks very different
from the official Westminster version.
Despite the presence of tens of thousands of western troops and the huge expense
of UN administration, neither in Kosovo nor Bosnia has new life been injected
into the economy. The much-vaunted 'humanitarian imperialism' has not produced a
new Marshall Plan.
Djindjic's last plaintive interview before his murder revealed that of all the
billions promised to regenerate Serbia's economy only $500m had come; the rest
went to western banks to repay debts incurred by Tito long ago. Aware of his own
unpopularity as prices rose and unemployment hit 10 per cent of the population
(800,000 out of eight million), Djindjic admitted that 'Serbs live like
Africans'.
The message is that the billions promised in reconstruction aid either do not
materialise or are spent on the military infrastructure of the western garrison.
Firms such as Dick Cheney's Halliburton and the new Labour crony companies here
get contracts (at the expense of taxpayers in the west), but locals in the
liberated zone see little benefit.
Take electricity in Kosovo, for example. At first, power shortages were blamed
on sabotage of the Obilic generating plant by the departing Serbs. But anyone
could see that its chimneys pumped out filth into the sky soon after the
fighting stopped in 1999, so something was going on there. But power cuts are
still the norm: Albanians in the state get two, at most four, hours of
electricity a day.
Everyone there knows that certain EU officials responsible for the Kosovo
electricity supply have been implicated in a scam to sell locally generated
electricity to wealthier consumers up north. Albanians blame Serbia - but Serbs,
too, suffer power cuts, and blame associates of the murdered Djindjic for
denying them power in order to make money selling it to Germany and Austria.
Whoever profits from the racket, the post-Milosevic former Yugoslavia is getting
poorer and more and more people are looking to flee abroad. Even David
Blunkett's figures show many more Kosovars claimed asylum in Britain after Nato
troops drove out the Serbs than before.
Throughout the Balkans, people's lives are getting worse, and only statistical
sleights of hand worthy of Stalin disguise the depths of decay. As the pie
shrinks, and western aid dries up in anticipation of new recipients elsewhere,
the ruthless mafia-style struggle over what is left gets worse.
Looking from Belgrade to Baghdad, it seems a safe bet that after an American
victory oil will flow freely westwards - but so will the refugees.
Just as millions of Serbs were bitterly disillusioned that the fall of Milosevic
did not mark the end of a downward spiral into poverty and mafia domination of a
shrinking economy, so, after a brief euphoria, Iraqis will discover that the end
of Saddam's regime and more than a decade of bombing and sanctions will not
necessarily mark an upswing in their lives.
Led by two born-again Christians, it is hardly surprising that the new world
order's motto seems to be 'the poor you will have with you always'. It looks as
if the victory of the Blair-Bush axis will spread postwar despair and
depopulation from Belgrade to Baghdad. A victory worthy of the name would
require a very different policy once the bombing stops.
The writer is a lecturer in modern history at Oriel College, Oxford
Copyright 2003 New Statesman Ltd
New Statesman