Kosovo precedent for Transdniestria confirmed, but US says no
Tiraspol Times & Weekly Review - March 30, 2007

By Jason Cooper

From Washington, Moscow and London, leading policy analysts are confirming the existence of a Kovoso precedent for Pridnestrovie (Transdniestria). A cornerstone of international law, fairness requires equal treatment for everyone. This contrasts with demands by the United States that special rules should apply only to Kosovo.

BRUSSELS (Tiraspol Times) - With an influential group of US State Department insiders bent on forcing Kosovo to independence this year, talking points have been issued to deny that Kosovo will create a precedent. At issue is territorial integrity, one of the principles of international law governing the creation of new states.

In Kosovo, the United States is willing to "break the law" and forget about the territorial integrity principle. But this lawbreaking will take place only once, say the American proponents of Kosovo's independence - promising that after Kosovo, territorial integrity will again be upheld and the door will close for new and emerging countries seeking statehood in similar situations.

International law specialists don't see it this way, explaining that a precedent will inevitably be created, no matter how many convoluted arguments are invented to explain why this shouldn't be the case.

Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the same issue. But speaking at a Brussels think tank this week, US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns was cavalier about the statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that it would be difficult to grant Kosovo independence but deny it to others.

" - I don't think that anyone would even suggest that Kosovo is a precedent that would have an impact on Georgia, Moldova or another country in Europe," he said, apparently categorizing the President of Russia as a non-person.

Policy analysts have had an easy time making hay of such statements. Masha Lipman, who works for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace dealing with Eastern Europe, underscores that regardless of US State Department protestations to the contrary, it is not out of place to talk about a Kosovo precedent.

Masha Lipman, Washington Post: "Parallel between Kosovo and Transdniestria not meaningless"

" - President Putin made it clear that should Kosovo be declared independent, this may be used as a precedent to unfreeze the situation around the unrecognized quasi-states - South Ossetia and Abkhasia in the territory of Georgia and Transdniestria in Moldova - that had been formed as byproducts of the collapse of the USSR," said Lipman in an article for The Washington Post.

" - The West wouldn't admit that Kosovo is in any way a precedent for those territories. Last week a high-ranking US State Department official told a Russian journalist in Moscow that the two situations have nothing in common. Punkt."

" - But drawing the parallel between Kosovo and the three unrecognized republics is not meaningless," says Lipman. "At any rate ignoring the way Russia sees it appears dangerously irresponsible".

US advocates breaking the "territorial integrity" principle

Russia is far from alone in affirming that Kosovo is a indeed going to set a precedent; like it or not. Influential voices on both sides of the Atlantic have pointed out the flaw in the US State Department's argument, and stressed the many parallels between Kosovo and the new and emerging countries on the post-Soviet space.

" - The rule of law works by precedent, so what applies to one must apply to others," agrees Stanley Kober, a foreign policy specialist at Washington DC's influential Cato Institute.

" - If we craft solutions that bypass existing law, we should recognize that we are creating opportunities for mischief down the road," explains Stanley Kober. "Indeed, if we attempt to buy peace at the expense of law, we might find out we end up with neither." He also adds that a heavyhanded US-imposed solution to the Kosovo debacle will have reverberations that "will be felt well beyond the Balkans."

While Burns was talking to a group of journalists afterwards, Russian ambassador to the European Union Vladimir Chizhov leaned across to say goodbye to the American and added:
" - It will be a precedent, but not because we want it!"

The principle of territorial integrity is one of the main principles governing the creation of new states, but it is not the only one and it is not in every case the most important principle either. Under international law, it must be weighed against other principles such as self-determination and the principle of effectiveness which goes to the root of who actually has effective, de facto sovereignty over a territory.

NATO's secretary-general told Interfax the Kosovo status decision would not serve as precedent. Parroting the current position of the US State Department, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that "Kosovo is a unique case" and didn't think it should be an example for others to follow.

Apart from giving moral support to the current position of the US State Department, it was not immediately clear why he felt a need to weigh in, since at the same time he made it clear in his statement that "NATO is not involved in the process of determining Kosovo's status."

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov takes a more realistic position, solidly grounded in international law:
" - Any decision made about Kosovo's status will set a precedent. For the first time, independence will be gained not by being a component of a former union-member state, as with the case of Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union [but by a former autonomous region]," Lavrov stated at the government hour at the Russian State Duma on March 21, Interfax news agency reported.

Int'l relations based on "law of the jungle", says President
Other policy analysts agree. Vlad Sobell, an analyst with the Daiwa Institute of Research Europe, based in London, warns that the Western policy makers are headed towards confrontation because they are beginning to believe an irresponsible black-and-white worldview created by public diplomacy hawks and specialists in soundbytes.

" - The most dangerous and destabilizing factor in today’s Europe is not the Kremlin regime, but mendacious Washington propaganda and the high-handed, frequently confrontational stance taken by Western capitals emboldened by it," says Sobell, who came to Daiwa from a job as Senior Economic Analyst with US-funded Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). The Daiwa Institute of Research Europe Limited (DIREL) is a Europe-based subsidiary of Daiwa Securities Group, Japan.

Before the principle of self-determination is applied to 8 year old Kosovo, say some, it should be applied to 17 year old Transnistria, already "de facto" independent and with a much stronger degree of self-rule, established government institutions and economic viability. Sergei Markov, a top Russian analyst, believes that the UN has demonstrated double standards.

" - The United Nations should use similar principles for similar cases," Markov said. "It's impossible to talk about the independence of Kosovo until we are [talking about] independence for Abkhazia, Transdneister, and South Ossetia."

In Tiraspol, PMR President Igor Smirnov, 65, said that the unrecognized country which he leads has a better case for independence than Kosovo.

Speaking to journalists Tuesday, the independence leader urged a status settlement solution based on a strict adherence to the principles of international law, but at the same time expressed some doubt that it would happen.

" - Pridnestrovie has a stronger case for statehood than Kosovo, but unfortunately in international relations right now predominates the law of the jungle; the law of the strong".

With 555,000 inhabitants, Pridnestrovie - also known as Transnistria, or Transdniester - is the same size as Montenegro. Having declared independence in 2006, Montenegro is the latest member country to join the United Nations. As a Kosovo precedent takes shape, despite State Department protestations to the contrary, the strongly independent-minded people of Pridnestrovie are optimistic that their turn is next.

Published 2006 - 2007 by TIRASPOL TIMES & WEEKLY REVIEW (News Services), a.f.s.
Tiraspol, PMR - Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublica

Posted for Fair Use only.