Kosovo's grim future
The Washington Times - August 29, 2007
By David Binder
Forget about status negotiations for a moment. The near-term outlook for Kosovo
is unalterably grim: An economy stuck in misery; a bursting population of young
people with "criminality as the sole career choice;" an insupportably high
birthrate; a society imbued with corruption and a state dominated by organized
crime figures.
These are the conclusions of "Operationalizing of the Security Sector Reform in
the Western Balkans," a 124-page investigation by the Institute for European
Policy commissioned by the German Bundeswehr and issued in January. This month
the text turned up on a Web log. It is labeled "solely for internal use."
Provided one can plow through the appallingly dense Amtsdeutsch — "German
officialese" — that is already evident in the ponderous title, a reader is
rewarded with sharp insights about Kosovo.
The authors point out a "grotesque denial of reality by the international
community" about Kosovo, coupling that with the warning of "a new wave of unrest
that could greatly exceed the level of escalation seen up to now," The institute
authors, Mathias Jopp and Sammi Sandawi, spent six months interviewing 70
experts and mining current literature on Kosovo in preparing the study.
In their analysis, political unrest and guerrilla fighting in the 1990s led to
basic changes which they call a "turnabout in Kosovo-Albanian social
structures." The result is a "civil war society in which those inclined to
violence, ill-educated and easily influenced people could make huge social leaps
in a rapidly constructed soldateska."
They continued: "It is a Mafia society" based on "capture of the state" by
criminal elements. ("State capture" is a term coined in 2000 by a group of World
Bank analysts to describe countries where government structures have been seized
by corrupt financial oligarchies.
In the authors' definition, Kosovan organized crime "consists of
multimillion-Euro organizations with guerrilla experience and espionage
expertise." They quote a German intelligence service report of "closest ties
between leading political decision makers and the dominant criminal class" and
name Ramush Haradinaj, Hashim Thachi and Xhavit Haliti as compromised leaders
who are "internally protected by parliamentary immunity and abroad by
international law."
The U.N. Mission in Kosovo, they add, "is in many respects an element of the
local problem scene." They describe both UNMIK and KFOR as infiltrated by agents
of organized crime who forewarn their ringleaders of any impending raids.
Among the negative findings listed are:
• The justice system's 40,000 uncompleted criminal cases.
• The paucity of corruption-crime investigations: 10-15 annually.
• 400 gas stations (where 150 would suffice), many of which serve as fronts for
brothels and money-changing depots.
The study sharply criticizes the United States for "abetting the escape of
criminals" in Kosovo as well as "preventing European investigators from
working." This has made Americans "vulnerable to blackmail." It notes "secret
CIA detention centers" at Camp Bondsteel and assails American military training
for Kosovo (Albanian) police authorized by the Pentagon.
Concerning the crime scene the authors conclude that "with resolution of the
status issue and the successive withdrawal of international forces the criminal
figures will come closer than ever to their goal of total control of Kosovo."
Among the dismal findings of the German study are those on the economy:
n Sinking remissions of money from Kosovans working abroad, a primary source of
income for many Kosovo families pegged now at 560 million Euros per annum.
• 88 percent of the land now in private ownership, meaning ever more subdividing
of plots, usually among brothers, leading to less efficient agriculture.
• A hostile climate for foreign investors, frightened by political instability
and the power of Mafia structures.
A central issue in Kosovo is an "inexhaustible supply of young people without a
future and therefore ready for violence," the study says. The only remedy for
dealing with this "youth bulge" is to open Northern Europe's gates to young
Kosovans seeking jobs, the authors say.
In anticipation of a transfer of oversight from the UN to the European Union,
the authors warn: "[The] EU is in danger of following too strongly in the wake
of a failed UN and [disintegrating] under the inherited burden unless they make
an open break with practices and methods of UNMIK."
One of the experts they interviewed put it more bluntly: "EU is inheriting from
UNMIK a fireworks store filled with pyromaniacs." But in their depiction,
Kosovans appear beholden to their legend of historic exploitation — such that if
they finally achieve independence, all will suddenly be well. In the past
Kosovans could and did always blame somebody else for their troubles: Ottomans,
Yugoslavs, Serbs.
Now they have begun to blame UNMIK. But what will happen if they have only
themselves to blame?
David Binder worked for the New York Times reporting from Germany and the
Balkans.
Copyright 2007 The Washington Times
Posted for Fair Use only.